Gas Prices Predicted to Rise $0.30–$1.00 per Gallon After Chevron El Segundo Refinery Fire
Gas prices in California and across the western United States are expected to rise sharply in the coming weeks following a fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery. Analysts are already predicting that prices could climb anywhere from 30 cents to $1.00 per gallon, depending on the extent of the damage and how long the facility remains offline. This refinery is one of the largest in California and plays a critical role in supplying gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel throughout Southern California and neighboring states. With supply disrupted, the question drivers are asking is simple: how much will we pay at the pump, and for how long?
Why the El Segundo Chevron Refinery Matters
Chevron’s El Segundo refinery, located just south of Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), processes nearly 270,000 barrels of crude oil per day. This makes it one of the most important refining hubs on the West Coast. The facility produces a wide range of petroleum products, including:
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Gasoline for Southern California drivers
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Jet fuel for LAX and regional airports
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Diesel fuel for trucks and shipping
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Specialty products such as lubricants and asphalt
When a refinery of this scale experiences a shutdown, the impact on supply is immediate. Unlike smaller disruptions that can be covered by drawing from existing stockpiles or shifting supply routes, the El Segundo facility is a backbone of the region’s fuel infrastructure.
What We Know About the Fire So Far
Early reports indicate that the fire broke out in one of the refinery’s processing units, though Chevron has not yet released specifics about the extent of the damage. Emergency crews were dispatched quickly, and the blaze was brought under control before it spread to other areas of the plant. However, the real concern is downtime. Even if the visible fire damage seems limited, heat and smoke can compromise sensitive equipment, leading to weeks or months of repair work.
At this point, Chevron has not confirmed:
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Which specific units were damaged (crude distillation, catalytic cracking, or others)
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Whether the fire impacted storage tanks or distribution pipelines
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How long production will remain offline
This lack of detail leaves markets guessing, and uncertainty itself drives prices higher.
How Refinery Fires Affect Gas Prices
Refinery fires are unfortunately not uncommon in California. The state’s strict fuel formulation rules mean that gasoline sold here must meet unique environmental standards, making it harder to import fuel from other regions when local refineries go down.
When a fire occurs, three things typically happen:
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Immediate supply disruption – Even a partial shutdown reduces available gasoline in the distribution system.
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Price speculation – Traders and wholesalers raise prices in anticipation of future shortages.
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Consumer impact – Gas stations increase pump prices, sometimes overnight, and usually faster than they lower them once supply returns.
The result is that drivers often pay more for weeks after a fire, even if the refinery comes back online sooner than expected.
Predictions: $0.30 to $1.00 Increase
Industry analysts are projecting a $0.30 to $1.00 per gallon increase in gasoline prices across California and possibly in Nevada and Arizona, which are linked to the same supply chain. If the outage is brief, the impact may remain closer to the lower end of that range. But if repairs take months, the West Coast could face some of the highest gas prices in the nation heading into the winter.
This is particularly concerning given that California already pays the highest average gas prices in the United States, often $1.50 to $2.00 above the national average due to taxes, environmental regulations, and supply constraints.
Real-Time Gas Prices: Where to Find the Cheapest Fuel
For drivers trying to save money at the pump, tracking real-time prices is essential. Tools like GasBuddy allow consumers to find the cheapest stations nearby and monitor trends.
👉 Click here to view the live GasBuddy map of current gas prices.
By using crowdsourced reporting, GasBuddy helps drivers avoid stations that raise prices too aggressively during refinery outages.
Why Transparency from Chevron Matters
At the moment, Chevron has released only limited information about the fire. Drivers, regulators, and policymakers deserve more clarity. We need answers to key questions:
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What unit or section of the refinery was damaged?
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What percentage of refining capacity is currently offline?
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What is the estimated repair timeline?
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Are there safety or environmental concerns related to the incident?
Without this transparency, speculation dominates the narrative, fueling panic buying and price spikes. Chevron has a responsibility to the public and to the communities it serves to provide accurate and timely updates.
Historical Precedents: What Past Refinery Fires Tell Us
California has experienced several major refinery disruptions in recent decades, each of which sent gas prices soaring:
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Richmond Chevron Fire (2012): A massive blaze damaged a crude distillation unit, leading to months of repairs and price spikes across the Bay Area.
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ExxonMobil Torrance Explosion (2015): An equipment failure disrupted production for over a year, cutting regional supply and contributing to some of the highest gas prices in California history.
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Phillips 66 Wilmington Issues: Maintenance and outages at this Los Angeles-area refinery have repeatedly contributed to local price surges.
The El Segundo fire could follow a similar pattern depending on the severity of the damage.
Economic and Environmental Ripple Effects
The financial impact of rising gas prices extends far beyond the pump. Trucking companies, airlines, and shipping firms all face higher fuel costs, which are often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services. This comes at a time when inflation remains a concern for many households.
There is also an environmental angle. Refinery fires release pollutants into the air and raise concerns about worker safety and community health. Regulators will likely investigate the incident to determine if safety lapses contributed to the blaze.
What Drivers Can Do Now
While consumers can’t control refinery operations, there are steps drivers can take to minimize the financial impact of higher gas prices:
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Use price-tracking apps like GasBuddy to locate the cheapest stations.
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Consider fuel rewards programs offered by major retailers and grocery chains.
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Practice fuel-efficient driving (slower acceleration, reduced idling, proper tire inflation).
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Plan trips strategically to reduce unnecessary miles.
These small steps may not offset the full impact of a $1 per gallon increase, but they can help cushion the blow.
The Road Ahead
The Chevron El Segundo fire highlights just how fragile California’s fuel supply chain is. With limited refining capacity and unique fuel standards, any disruption quickly ripples through the market. Until Chevron provides clear details about the damage and expected repair timeline, drivers and businesses should brace for higher prices in the weeks ahead.
Policymakers may also use this event to renew debates about California’s reliance on fossil fuels and the need to diversify energy infrastructure. Whether through renewable fuels, electric vehicle adoption, or expanded refining resilience, the conversation about energy security will only grow louder.
Conclusion: Waiting for Chevron’s Answers
For now, one thing is clear: gas prices are going up, and consumers will feel the pinch. The range of 30 cents to $1.00 per gallon may sound speculative, but history suggests these projections are realistic when a refinery of this size goes offline.
Chevron owes the public answers about what was damaged, how long repairs will take, and what steps are being taken to stabilize fuel supply. Until then, drivers are left to track pump prices, adjust their budgets, and hope the disruption is resolved quickly.
👉 Check the live GasBuddy price map to stay updated on current trends near you.